Greenland Resources: The Arctic Minerals Powerhouse

Rare Earth Elements: The Strategic Crown Jewels

Let me be blunt about why rare earth elements (REEs) matter so much: they're essential to modern civilization. These 17 elements power everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines, missile guidance systems, and medical imaging devices. Without REEs, the modern economy and modern military both grind to a halt. And Greenland has them in quantities that could make it the world's premier supplier.

The Kvanefjeld deposit in southwestern Greenland is one of the world's largest rare earth element resources. Geological surveys estimate over 1 billion tons of mineral resources there, with particularly rich concentrations of neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—the heavy rare earths that are most critical for high-tech applications and hardest to find elsewhere.

But Kvanefjeld is just the beginning. The Tanbreez project, located in southern Greenland, contains even larger estimated reserves of rare earth elements—possibly the largest single deposit on Earth. What makes Tanbreez particularly interesting is its high ratio of heavy to light rare earths, matching exactly what high-tech manufacturers need most.

I've examined the geological data from these projects, and the numbers are staggering. A single major mine operating at full capacity could supply 10-20% of global rare earth demand for decades. We're not talking about small deposits here—we're talking about world-class resources that could reshape global supply chains.

Critical Minerals: Beyond Rare Earths

Greenland's resource wealth extends far beyond rare earths. The island contains significant deposits of uranium, zinc, lead, iron ore, copper, nickel, platinum group elements, and gemstones. Many of these occur in polymetallic deposits that could be economically attractive even without rare earth credits.

The Kvanefjeld deposit, besides its rare earth elements, contains substantial uranium resources. While uranium mining faces political and environmental challenges, it's nevertheless a valuable energy resource in a world looking for clean power sources. The deposit also contains significant zinc and quantities of fluorite, both industrial minerals with established markets.

"Greenland represents one of the last great frontiers for mineral exploration on Earth. The geologic potential is enormous, and we've barely scratched the surface of what's actually there. As exploration technology improves and ice melts, we're discovering new deposits regularly."

What's particularly exciting from a strategic perspective is that many of these deposits are located near coasts that are becoming ice-free for longer periods each year. This dramatically improves the economics of development by making shipping viable for more of the year. A decade ago, some of these deposits were frozen in with no practical access. Today, they're increasingly accessible.

Offshore Oil and Gas: The Energy Frontier

If you thought the mineral deposits were impressive, wait until you hear about the hydrocarbon potential. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic region as a whole contains approximately 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas. Greenland's exclusive economic zone encompasses over 836,000 square miles of potentially prospective offshore territory.

Exploration to date has been limited, but the results have been intriguing. Offshore wells drilled in the 1970s and 1990s encountered hydrocarbon shows, though not in commercial quantities at the time. However, exploration technology has advanced dramatically since then, and our understanding of Arctic petroleum systems has improved significantly.

What makes Greenland's hydrocarbon potential particularly interesting is the political context. As climate change makes Arctic waters more accessible, and as global demand for energy continues to grow, Arctic oil and gas are looking increasingly attractive. While there are environmental concerns, the strategic value of having non-OPEC, non-Russian energy sources is obvious.

Economic Potential: What Are These Resources Worth?

This is where things get really interesting from an economic perspective. Valuing mineral resources is notoriously difficult—prices fluctuate, extraction costs vary, and political risks can change overnight. That said, we can make some reasonable estimates based on current market conditions and comparable projects.

Let's take rare earth elements as an example. Current prices for the most valuable heavy rare earths range from $100 to $500 per kilogram, depending on the specific element and market conditions. A major mine producing 20,000 tons of REEs annually (a realistic scale for a world-class deposit) could generate $2-10 billion in annual revenue at current prices. Over a 30-year mine life, that's $60-300 billion in total revenue.

Now consider that Greenland has multiple deposits of this scale. The potential economic value is truly enormous. Even accounting for extraction costs, infrastructure investments, and the substantial challenges of operating in the Arctic, the net economic value could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars over the next several decades.

From an American strategic perspective, it's not just about the money—it's about securing supply chains for critical materials. The U.S. defense industry alone requires significant quantities of rare earth elements for missile systems, jet engines, satellites, and advanced electronics. Having a friendly, secure source of these materials is worth an enormous premium.

Mining Costs and Challenges

I don't want to paint an overly rosy picture—developing Greenland's resources comes with substantial challenges. Mining in the Arctic is expensive, complex, and technically demanding. Let me break down the major cost factors and challenges.

First, there's infrastructure. Much of Greenland has no roads, no ports, no power grid, and no permanent settlements. Developing a mine often means building everything from scratch: ports, power plants, housing, roads, and airstrips. These infrastructure costs can run into the billions of dollars before a single ton of ore is extracted.

Second, there's the Arctic environment itself. Operations are only possible year-round in some locations, while others are accessible only during summer months when ice recedes. Equipment must be specially designed for extreme cold, permafrost creates engineering challenges, and weather can delay operations for extended periods.

Third, there's labor. Greenland has a small population (about 56,000 people), meaning skilled workers must be imported from abroad. This requires building housing, recreational facilities, and often paying premium wages to attract workers to remote locations. All of this adds to operational costs.

Current Projects and Players

Despite the challenges, several companies are actively exploring and developing projects in Greenland. Let me summarize the most significant ones and their current status.

Kvanefjeld (Greenland Minerals): This project has been in development for over a decade. An Australian company, Greenland Minerals Ltd, has completed extensive feasibility studies and received preliminary environmental approval. The project has faced political headwinds from Greenlandic governments concerned about uranium mining, but it remains one of the most advanced rare earth projects globally.

Tanbreez: Owned by a private company, Tanbreez is perhaps the most exciting rare earth discovery in Greenland in recent years. The deposit is larger than Kvanefjeld and has a better ratio of heavy to light rare earths. Exploration is ongoing, and the company has been tight-lipped about specific development plans, but the resource potential is undeniable.

Other Projects: Numerous other exploration projects are underway across Greenland, targeting everything from iron ore to copper to gemstones. While many of these are early-stage and may never prove economic, they demonstrate the breadth of Greenland's resource potential.

Investment Opportunities and Risks

For investors, Greenland represents both enormous opportunity and substantial risk. Let me give you my honest assessment of the risk-reward equation.

On the opportunity side, you have world-class deposits of critical minerals in jurisdictions that are generally stable and friendly to foreign investment. As the U.S. and other countries seek to reduce dependence on Chinese supplies, Greenlandic minerals are likely to become increasingly valuable. Early investors could see extraordinary returns if projects succeed.

On the risk side, political uncertainty is real. Greenlandic politics have become increasingly skeptical of large-scale mining, particularly projects involving uranium. Governments have changed, policies have shifted, and projects have been delayed or cancelled. There's also commodity price risk—if rare earth prices fall, some projects become uneconomic.

My advice for investors is to be selective and patient. Look for companies with strong management teams, solid technical teams, and projects with robust economics even at lower commodity prices. Diversify across multiple projects and companies to manage risk. And be prepared for long timelines—these projects take years to develop.

Strategic Implications for the United States

This brings us to the heart of why Trump—and American strategic planners more broadly—are so interested in Greenland. The resource wealth I've described isn't just economically valuable; it's strategically crucial for American national security and economic competitiveness in the 21st century.

Consider the supply chain for electric vehicles, a strategic priority for the U.S. as it seeks to compete with China in clean energy technologies. Each EV requires roughly 2 kilograms of rare earth elements for its motor and electronics. With millions of EVs being produced annually, secure access to REEs becomes a matter of economic and industrial security.

Or consider defense applications. The F-35 fighter jet requires about 417 kilograms of rare earth materials. Each Aegis destroyer uses substantial quantities in its radar and propulsion systems. As the U.S. modernizes its military, demand for these materials will only increase.

Greenland offers the potential for a secure, reliable supply of these critical materials under American influence if not control. Whether through investment partnerships, development agreements, or other arrangements, the U.S. has a strong interest in seeing Greenlandic resources developed and brought to market.

The Climate Change Factor

I can't discuss Greenland's resources without addressing the elephant in the room: climate change. The melting ice sheet is making previously inaccessible areas available for exploration and development. It's extending shipping seasons, reducing logistical costs, and fundamentally changing the economics of Arctic development.

From a purely economic perspective, climate change is making Greenland's resources more accessible and valuable. Areas that were permanently frozen year-round are now ice-free for months each summer. Shipping routes that were impassable are now regularly navigated. The Arctic is becoming a normal operating environment for resource extraction.

Of course, this comes with enormous irony—burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change, which makes Arctic resource extraction easier, which facilitates more fossil fuel extraction. The geopolitical and ethical dimensions of this dynamic are complex and troubling. But they don't change the underlying economic reality: Greenland's resources are becoming more accessible and valuable.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, I expect Greenland's resource sector to develop gradually but steadily. Political and environmental concerns will temper the pace of development, but economic incentives and strategic interests will drive it forward. The U.S. will seek to increase its influence and access to Greenlandic resources, likely through a combination of investment, diplomatic engagement, and security cooperation.

The companies that succeed will be those that balance economic viability with environmental responsibility, who work collaboratively with Greenlandic communities and governments, and who can navigate complex geopolitical currents. The rewards for success could be enormous—not just financially, but strategically.

Trump's interest in Greenland makes complete sense in this context. He's looking at a territory with potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in strategic resources, located in a region of growing geopolitical importance, and sitting in America's strategic backyard. Whether through purchase, partnership, or other means, the U.S. will almost certainly seek to secure access to these resources.